Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases
Learning from Successes and Failures
Edited by Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning, Stig Stenslie
What can intelligence producers and users learn from contemporary intelligence warning cases to anticipate, prepare for, mitigate and prevent future security challenges?
List of Contributors
Abbreviations
Introduction: Warning – The Highest Purpose and Most Challenging Mission of Intelligence
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie
1. Punggye-ri, 2006 – North Korea’s First Nuclear Test
Soo Kim
2. London, 2006 – The al-Qaeda Transatlantic Bomb Plot
Michael S. Goodman
3. Tbilisi, 2008 – Russia Invades Georgia
Daniela Richterova
4. Wall Street, 2008 – The Global Financial Crisis
John A. Gentry
5. In Amenas, 2013 – Terrorists Attack Petroleum Interests
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning
6. Crimea 2014 – Russia’s Annexation of Crimea
Tom Røseth & Tobias Sæther
7. Mosul 2014 – The Rise of ISIS
Nikki Ikani
8. Palmyra, 2015 – ISIS Attacks Cultural Heritage Sites
Zeynep Egeli & Lars Haugom
9. Paris 2015 – ISIS Attacks Paris
Pauline Blistène
10. Kyiv, 2015 – Russia’s Cyber-Attack on Ukraine’s Power Grid
Aaron Brantly
11. Wuhan, 2019 – A Global Pandemic
Damien van Puyvelde
12. Capitol Hill, 2021 – Insurrection in Washington DC
Stephen Coulthart
13. Bergen, 2021 – Russia’s Strategic Acquisition Bid on Bergen Engines AS
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning
14: Kabul, 2021 – The Taliban Overtakes Kabul
Kristian Gustafson
15: Kyiv, 2022 – Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
Huw Dylan
16: Sindh, 2022 – Climate Change Floods in Pakistan
Stig Stenslie
Conclusion: Towards Better Warning – Lessons and Recommendations for Intelligence
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie
References
Index
This book is an important contribution to the study of intelligence warning. The wide selection of case studies is especially valuable, including not only cases of traditional warning such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also non-traditional warning of threats such as natural disasters, pandemics, and financial crises.
